DON MacKENZIE
Winner of the Freiman Award
Don MacKenzie, a senior scientist with Wyle, is the International Society of Parametric Analysts' (ISPA's) most recent recipient of the prestigious Freiman Award. Named for ISPA's founder, Frank Freiman, this award is the society's highest honor and is given to "individuals who have made outstanding contributions to the theoretical or applied aspects of parametric modeling or cost estimating over a significant amount of time."
An individual may receive this award only once in a lifetime. While his contemporaries see his receipt of this award fitting and just, MacKenzie is "overwhelmed. I've received the highest recognition [of my work], so I want to do more and better works in hopes of living up to that recognition."
ISPA sets high standards for the Freiman. "Typically, a Freiman candidate will have left a legacy to the profession." MacKenzie has done just that. He has dedicated more than 25 years of his life to parametric estimating and risk analysis and his efforts have been recognized throughout the parametric world and beyond.
Colonel Peggy Hillebrandt, former chief, National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) Cost Division, sees MacKenzie as "a pioneer practitioner and influential advocate for the use of parametric estimating," and believes "more than any other individual, he has contributed to the NRO incorporating parametric estimating as an essential component for decision making on major programs."
Lt. Col. (Ret) Phil Popovich, also a former chief of the NRO Cost Division, agrees. "His extensive knowledge of the [parametrics] field makes him a true national asset," said Popovich.
Everyone who knows MacKenzie agrees that he is extremely passionate about his work. Moreover, he is technically superb and holds himself to the highest standards. His colleagues often describe him as an exacting, confident, creative, patient, and incredibly professional man who makes others think harder and constantly challenge themselves.
Col. (Ret) Pete Barnum, former chief, NRO Cost Group views one of MacKenzie's greatest contributions as his ability to remain an unbiased analyst, who is not swayed by politics or popular opinion.
Edwin Miller, department manager at Wyle, states MacKenzie "sets the standard by which all cost analyst team members are measured." "To date, no one has been able to approach the level of knowledge [MacKenzie] has accrued over the more than 20 years of support to the NRO." MacKenzie is leaving his mark on the parametric world; however, cost and risk analysis weren't always his passion.
The Young Analyst
MacKenzie, born in Petaluma, Calif., first discovered his love of analytical challenges in seventh grade. He, and the rest of his class, spent hours grappling with a complex word problem. But, unlike some of his classmates, MacKenzie couldn't let it go. He continued his mental gymnastics until he was awakened in the middle of the night with the answer. He continued to apply this dedication throughout his formative years. This is not to say he immediately chose mathematics as his field of study. When he prepared to enter Berkley at 17, he listened carefully to his father's advice to "choose something you love and do it to the best of your ability." Thus, he decided to spread his creative wings and endeavored to become an architect. He attacked this course of study with the same fervor he applied to everything else.
However, he soon found the emotional demands overwhelming. "The [emotional] highs and lows were too draining and did not allow time or energy for full participation in the college experience." MacKenzie then changed his major to engineering and maintained high grades while also serving as a social chairman for his dormitory.
Barely out of college MacKenzie opened himself to the world, and the world to his mind. Long before others explored the possibilities, MacKenzie performed non-linear finite element structural analyses of flexible space structures. Additionally, MacKenzie remembers, "It took perseverance, but just trying to solve a problem, I invented a way to do cost saving matrix manipulations."
Later, he developed a Monte Carlo "Demand Profile" statistical model to generate global demands for system processing with random variations in type, occurrence time, and geographical location. He also performed risk analyses for nuclear power plants, characterizing a host of potential threats to the plant, its work force, and surroundings. After working as an engineer and project manager for System Development Corporation in Santa Monica, Calif., Mackenzie, along with five other young entrepreneurs began a new adventure owning their own company, Applied Research, Incorporated. Like many people, MacKenzie desired financial rewards while being his own boss. He squirreled himself away, rejecting the management role to devote himself to his work. Fifteen years ago, he and the other shareholders accepted a purchase offer from Wyle, headquartered in El Segundo, Calif.
The Scientist
As a senior scientist with the Wyle team, MacKenzie continues to employ his truly computer-like mind to develop new estimating models, virtually whirring through the most complex of problems. His early PRICE based processes reinforced the belief of other parametricians that the best estimating is rarely ad hoc. He has developed hundreds of cost estimating relationships (CERs) as well as a complex estimating risk model. Much of the community finds it difficult to pinpoint MacKenzie's greatest contribution, thus far, to the field. MacKenzie's "application and refinement of the PRICE model is beyond peer in the estimating community," said Marilee Wheaton. "The process which he uses reflects all the tenets of parametric estimating goals-traceability, consistency, realism, accountability and speed."
Popovich believes MacKenzie "gives the cost function credibility," and Jim Emery, manager, Cost Estimating at Wyle, agrees. "He has established and applied a credible parametric cost estimating methodology based on a firm foundation of historical data," said Emery.
MacKenzie's cost estimates and analyses address all system costs, including hardware, software, and functional tasks (e.g., project management, system engineering, integration and test). He has developed regression models (Cost Driver Estimating Models) for PRICE MCPLX and ECMPLX input parameters. MacKenzie has also been responsible for the creation of the most comprehensive database of cost related space information in the world.
Currently, his primary tasks include producing/reviewing cost estimates, conducting trade studies, performing special studies to improve cost estimating methodologies, generating risk assessments, and devising schedule analysis techniques. He has contributed to over 550 major cost estimates, architectural trade studies, and cost tool development activities. His energy and commitment to the field has never waned.
Future Challenges
MacKenzie's search for new challenges drives his continuing probe into risk analysis. For him, it is an exploration of the unknown. Indeed, it was the risk challenge that led him to develop a new risk model. Tackling this type of challenge would be a daunting prospect for most. However, MacKenzie faces it with easy anticipation and a solid bank of knowledge.
The midnight problem solving technique developed at seven has evolved into a well-ingrained mental process wherein he routinely retrieves information about cost estimates and risk analyses he performed many years ago in a moment's notice. This is an ever-growing foundation of information and experience.
He views each new task as an opportunity to learn and to share. He continues to provide Wyle, and, indeed, the parametric world, with insightful presentations such as his most recent paper, "Space System Cost Variance and Estimating Uncertainty," offered at the ISPA 2000 conference. MacKenzie believes these papers to be his greatest contribution to the field. He enjoys mentoring and teaching, believing it a "sin not to share knowledge and experience." And his coworkers agree.
There is a veritable waiting list for people who want to work with him, learn from him, and study under him. Since joining Wyle, MacKenzie built a team of top-notch cost analysts. And he isn't finished! He takes time from his hectic schedule to teach weekly classes covering the latest techniques in parametric analysis, thereby maintaining a highly trained team. His self-growth is also unending.
"I have on occasion wondered why I chose to remain in essentially the same job for over 23 years," said MacKenzie. "The answers are probably what you would hear from many other long-time NRO workers: It's gratifying to be part of the new system developments, the work is challenging (particularly true for cost estimating) and I feel a strong sense of dedication to the NRO mission." Furthermore, it is his intent to "provide the NRO cost group with even more logical, well thought out analyses and improvements to our current capabilities."
MacKenzie is truly as his colleagues describe - he is gifted, generous, dedicated, meticulous, and insatiably curious. These traits are evident in everything he does, from designing and constructing his own rock hauler to learning how to weld. Nor has he left his artistic expression in the past. It is clear, as he discusses his latest mental hurdle, while donning his chef's apron to prepare another tantalizing meal, the Boy Scout, engineer, artist, analyst and parametrician have melded into one of the most interesting and dynamic people one could hope to meet and emulate. MacKenzie brings great pride and honor to the Wyle team.